Tuesday’s big race: Champion Hurdle Preview

Champion Hurdle 2014

* FSF is a unique form and speed rating.

Following Grade One wins at Punchestown and Leopardstown, Hurricane Fly completed his third win in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the latter course. The race clocked a time just under two seconds slower than the maiden hurdle. Despite an untidy jump at the last flight, “The Fly” found enough reserves to hold off the persistent challenge of Our Conor. Whilst some have suggested that Hurricane Fly does not show his best form at Cheltenham, the ratings suggest otherwise. His highest RPR is 173, which he achieved at Leopardstown, Punchestown, and Cheltenham. His best speed figure (on my ratings) was achieved when third in the 2012 Champion Hurdle. My figures suggest he has 5lb to find from his last run to achieve a similar RPR figure recorded last March. Given Willie Mullins upbeat comments on his progress, that appears achievable.

Our Conor is improving all the time (experienced paddock-watchers at Leopardstown felt the horse was still short of full-fitness). At five-years he may lack the strength for a Champion Hurdle. However, it is worth noting he improved his best juvenile RPR by 14lb when successful in the Triumph Hurdle. Whilst some have crabbed the form of that win, it is worth noting the second, third, and fourth are now on official marks of 148, 150, and 152. Having won by fifteen-lengths and upwards, Our Conor’s official mark of 161 is almost certainly lower than he can achieve. If Cheltenham does “Light his fire,” he cannot be left out of final calculations. Jezki needs to find improvement and looks held on this seasons form. He is not going to improve into a dangerous opponent until he settles in his races. A strong pace will help him, though it will not inconvenience others in the race. In addition, this year’s form suggests he will have his work cut out to reverse 2013 Supreme Novices hurdle form with My Tent Or Yours. Jezki wears a hood for the first time. MTOY and The New One are closely matched on running at Kempton Park over Christmas. Even allowing for The New One’s mistake at the last, I feel MTOY would have come out on top. Experienced paddock-watchers felt MTOY was still not at full-fitness on Boxing Day. In addition, the Old Course will, I feel, suit the Henderson horse better than The New One. The New One’s supporters insist he will prove the strongest of the pair up the hill. Based on last year’s Supreme that is a valid argument. However, MTOY is a stronger horse this time round, while a recent outing in a “Jumpers Bumper” will have taken the fizz out of him. He is also, in my opinion, a better jumper of hurdles. The fact JP’s team have supplemented Captain Cee Bee, suggests MTOY will have the pace he needs to settle into a good rhythm. Indeed one could read into that they consider stamina not to be an issue. A Thousand Stars presence means a strong pace is likely. Last year there was a strong pace in the early stages with Rock On Ruby, (wearing blinkers for the first time) making the running. Compared to the 2012 renewal, a five-second slower time was clocked from the third last to the winning post. Having taken an age to get into full-stride, the pace collapse, clearly suited “The Fly.” One hopes there will be a strong, even, pace from the start. Looking at the ratings above, improvement is needed to match “The Fly’s” 2012/13 figure. However, if he dips below that figure, the race appears up for grabs. Selection: My Tent Or Yours