St Leger Festival Preview and tips – Day 3

Here’s the Day 3 St Leger Festival preview and tips from Will Kedjanyi. For more from Will plus our profitable Plays and Lays, join our Community. JP Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus) (1.55): It will take a stunning effort to beat Nemoralia if she runs to her best this season, like she has done on each of her four runs. They include two deeply impressive wins, both at York, the latter when nearly breaking the course record in the City of York Stakes, and the first when making an impressive comeback. Inbetween she was a slightly unlucky third in the Coronation Stakes and then fourth in the Prix Jean Prat when given too much to do. Lumiere has missed twice this season but on the one occasion she hit the target she did so in style when taking the race that used to be The Stubbs Stakes by six lengths after her Guineas disappointment. This trip ought to suit her more than milling so she is respected. The South African import Same Jurisdiction has been given a rating by the BHA of 111 which puts her just off Lumiere, and market vibes will tell an awful lot about what Ed Dunlop’s South African import can bring to the table. Mise En Rose has been progressive through the season and her Oak Tree second was creditable given that she didn’t get the run needed two furlongs out and before that she’d taken a handicap in the style of a group performer at the July Festival. Spangled got there on the line at Newmarket last time and there should be more to come from the in-form Varian yard’s charge. La Rioja was fourth in the Commonwealth Cup but hasn’t stepped forward from that and Maggie Pink looks overmatched. Advice: 5 pts win Nemoralia (10/11 general) Pepsi Max Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) (2.30): Not much to separate these at their best and the ground is a crucial factor as well. Tis Marvellous may have paid for overracing when trying to match Lady Aurelia’s raw pace in the Prix Morny over 6 furlongs last time but the time before that he was deeply impressive in the Robert Papin and it might be that the minimum trip suits him best in that sort of company. It’s also important to remember how little separated the field in the Morny, with all five of the runners being Group winners. Yalta needs the ground to be as fast as possible but his trashing of The Last Lion in the Molecomb was as visually impressive as anything in the field and Johnston’s stablemate has since underlined the form with a fine Gimcrack third and impressive Kempton win. Prince of Lir beat The Last Lion on his debut in a conditions race and then the Norfolk (Legendary Lunch sixth), before going off the boil afterwards, a disappointing fifth in the Robert-Papin and then out of his depth in the Nunthorpe. Slower ground should really suit his chances of bouncing back and he is respected. Afandem was a ready winner of the Prix d’Arenberg and is clearly improving with each run although some of these have more to give than him. Ardad’s sensational Windsor Castle win has not been repeated twice since but it might be that he needs an ease on this level and if he bounced back to that level of form he’d be overpriced and Hit The Bid must prove that his Curragh win was not a total fluke (he also might want the ground to be at its quickest). Rainbow Mist, Grizzel, and Scabrough Stakes third Equimoo have something to find. Advice: 1 pt win Tis Marvellous (11/4) Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3YO plus) (3.05): Wall Of Fire stayed on very stoutly to spring a big surprise in the Melrose and he has obvious claims of following up that success. This is a good deal more competitive, however, and the Queen’s Fabricate holds leading claims. Given a lot to do when he was fifth in the Duke of Edinburgh, he bumped into two progressive horses in the shape of St Leger contender Muntahaa and the improving Duretto at Chester (First Mohican fourth), and off the same mark he might be best treated today. The Ebor is a key form race for this. Seamour was fifth then when he was kicked very early having ben on the speed for a long way with Ben Curtis in the saddle, and if a more restrained ride is given then he can turn around the form with Battersea, who came late but would want the ground to dry up. Orential Fox, second at Goodwood last time, was sixth there and gives a decent level to the form whilst being a contender in his own right. They promise for a strongly run race and Elidor could be off interest just off the pace, given that he won a competitive Goodwood handicap off just 4lbs lower before his Ebor disappointment. Stipulate should enjoy a strongly run race but has to improve but this could be too short for Caryli whilst All Talk and No Do is still above his last winning mark. Advice: 1 pt win Fabrication (5/1 general) 250th Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3YO plus) (3.40): In the absence of Mizzou it could be fair to say that Sheikhzayedroad has the best form following his successive pair of third place finishes in both the Ascot Gold Cup (Burmese fifth then) and Doncaster Cup. David Simock’s stayer has quickly reached a high level in this division and it is a little surprising that he’s the price he is given how versatile and speedy he is. That day he was well ahead of Quest For More, who was probably improved when he was a clear cut winner of the Yorkshire Cup when given a fine ride by George Baker who managed to slip a field that had included Clever Cookie and the disappointing Curbyourenthusiasm. Sir Mark Prescott confounded normal expectations when he took this in 2001 with an upgraded handicapper and his St Michel beat a solid handicapper in the shape of Oriental Fox at Goodwood and the way that he travelled through that race suggests that she’s a pattern horse at least. Sweet Selection is sure to love the trip here and that makes him worth a second look at what’s a big price, having beaten the progressive Sea of Heaven the time before. He is hugely respected and so is last year’s second Clondaw Warrior, who would have won the American St Leger with more time at Arlington. He has every chance of going one better here. Advice: 1 pt each/way Sheikhzayedroad (7/1 general) Weatherbys Stallion Book Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only) (4.15): This has the look of a very strong listed contest. Hamdan Al Maktoum has had three winners in the last five years for different yards and the way that Tamool put his novice stakes to bed on debut was deeply impressive, especially considering that his drift to the right hand side of the course cost him far more then his winning margin. He should be hard to beat once again but there’s plenty of useful opposition about to challenge him and Godolphin’s Salsabeellooked when he came through the runner-up and third to win his maiden snugly and it was a strong one judged on the wins of the second and third since, both of whom came six lengths clear of the field whilst the fifth and sixth have since placed too. He travelled well for a newcomer and that tactical speed could help him a lot. The form of Larchmont Lad’s impressive win at Sandown has since been boosted, making his a prime contender, and they all might have achieve more than Senator, a comfortable winner twice for Frankel. His other son Majoris didn’t enjoy the ground at Sandown and should find this more suitable but he has to improve again to contend here and this is far tougher than the tasks that Rodaini has been set so far and the same comment could apply to Bacchus. Advice: 1 pt win Salsabeel (3/1 general) Still In The Running-fm Outsource Classified Stakes (Class 3) (3YO plus) (4.50): Not much separates all of these on paper but Khiraat is surely entitled to improve more than most on hjust his third run and he can prove a good deal better than 85. A close second on his debut behind subsequent Glorious Goodwood scorer You’re Fired on debut, that form has since been boosted by those downfield and he was much improved for it when running out an easy winner at Pontefract when upped to a mile and this step up in trip ought to improve him once again. Winterval should come on again for his first run of the season and blinkers for the in form Varian team and is a key threat along with Indulged, sixth in a good race at Glorious Goodwood, and Laurence’s latest third in a C&D handicap here reads well too. Rotherwick, who keeps running well, has claims. Advice: 2 pts win Khiraat (7/4 general) Coopers Marquees Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus) (5.25): A high quality contest where Nuno Tristan is very deserving of favouritism. With a bit more luck at the start or in running he may well have won either the International Stakes or the Stewards Cup consolation race and since then he was a fine fourth in what a valuable and well contested handicap at Goodwood. A similar effort will make him hard to beat. Normandy Barrier, Shore Step and Get Knotted all have their claims in what’s another desperately difficult closer to the card. Advice: 1 pt win Nuno Tristan (11/4 general) For more from Will plus our profitable Plays (last 2 Saturday Plays have won) and Lays, join our Community. JP