A look at the trends behind the Neptune by Tony McCormick
The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle is open to horses aged four years or older. It is run on the Old Course at Cheltenham over a distance of about 2 miles and 5 furlongs. The race is for novice hurdlers in which there are 10 hurdles jumped.
The event was established in 1971, and it was initially called the Aldsworth Hurdle. The insurance company Sun Alliance (later Royal & Sun Alliance) began sponsoring the race in 1974, and it became known as the Sun Alliance Novices’ Hurdle. This association continued until 2006, and for the following three years the event was backed by Ballymore Properties.
There were high winds on the day of the planned running in 2008, so the Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle was rescheduled and run on Cheltenham’s New Course. A new sponsor, Neptune Investment Management, began supporting the race in 2010.
The registered (non-sponsored) title of the race is now the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle. This is in honour of Baring Bingham, a developer who purchased Prestbury Park in 1898, and organized the first Cheltenham Festival in 1902.
Primary Trends
The last 8 winners were aged 5 or 6
7 of the last 8 winners were priced 6/1 +
7 of the last 8 winners had run between 3 – 7 times
7 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
7 of the last 8 winners had won at 2m4f+
7 of the last 8 winners had finished in the first 2 in a Grade 2 or better
Shortlist
Backspin, Bobs Worth, Court In Motion and Zaidpour
Secondary Trends
7 of the last 8 winners had a pre race RPR of 141+
7 of the last 8 winners were running within 53 days
6 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred
|
Nations
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Placed
|
|
GB
|
87
|
4
|
10
|
|
Ire
|
41
|
4
|
6
|
Age Trends
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Age
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Placed
|
|
4
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
|
5
|
45
|
4
|
4
|
|
6
|
56
|
4
|
10
|
|
7
|
23
|
0
|
2
|
|
8+
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
Selections
Bobs Worth is a strong contender and worthy favourite, he is very strong on the trends. However, it’s worth noting that Nicky Henderson is 0 from 25 in this race. I wouldn’t quite give up on both Zaidpour and Backspin as both will get their favoured ground at Cheltenham, are currently reasonable prices right now and are up there with the favourite on the trends. If Court In Motion was trained by a more ‘fashionable’ trainer than the very capable Emma Lavelle the Fruits Of Love gelding would be much shorter.
Bobs Worth 5/1 (Generally)
Zaidpour 14/1 (Skybet)
Backspin 14/1 (Skybet)
Court In Motion 16/1 (Skybet)
Guest post by Tony McCormick, 14 February 2011
irishbigracetrends.com
