A look at the trends behind the Arkle by Tony McCormick
The Arkle Challenge Trophy was introduced as a replacement for the Cotswold Chase, a previous event at the Cheltenham Festival, in 1969. Its title pays tribute to Arkle, a three-time winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the mid 1960s. The race was formerly scheduled to be run on the second day of the Festival, but it was switched to its current slot on the opening day in 1980. The first sponsor of the Arkle was Waterford Castle, which began supporting the event in 1991. It was backed by Guinness from 1994 to 1999, and since then it has been sponsored by the Irish Independent newspaper.
Primary Trends
The last 8 winners had run between 3 and 5 times that season
The last 8 winners had won at 2m or 2m1f
The last 8 winners were officially rated between 146 – 162
7 of the last 8 winners were running within 52 days
7 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
7 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 4 at the course
7 of the last 8 winners were aged between 5 and 7
7 of the last 8 favourites were beaten (1F7723F0)
7 of the last 8 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles
Shortlist
Ghizao, Finians Rainbow, Medermit and Captain Chris
Secondary Trends
6 of the last 8 winners had a pre race RPR of 154+
6 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 152+
6 of the last 8 winners Irish/GB bred
Age Trends
|
Age
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
Placed
|
|
5
|
20
|
2
|
4
|
|
6
|
23
|
1
|
2
|
|
7
|
43
|
4
|
5
|
|
8
|
20
|
1
|
5
|
|
9+
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
|
Horse
|
Ran in
|
Position
|
|
Sizing Europe
|
Champion Hurdle
|
14/15
|
|
Forpadydeplasterer
Tidal Bay
|
Neptune Investments
|
4/15
2/15
|
|
My Way De Solzen
|
World Hurdle
Supreme Novices
|
1/20
15/20
|
|
Voy Pour Ustedes
|
–
|
–
|
|
Contraband
|
Coral Cup
|
24/27
|
|
Well Chief
|
Triumph Hurdle
|
2/27
|
|
Azertyuiop
|
–
|
–
|
Selection
I personally find the Trend of 7 of the 8 winners rated 142+ over hurdles interesting, giving us horses with ‘built in’ speed. Only Voy Pour Ustedes did not have a hurdle rating, but again, interestingly, he is the highest rated winner in the last 8 years (162).
From the shortlist I have to put a line through Ghizao (only 136 over hurdles) Finians Rainbow (5th at the course and 8yo – only 1 winner in last 8 years) and Captain Chris (only rated 141). That leaves us with a confident shout on Medermit who does very well on the Trends and has the needed mix of stamina and speed required for an Arkle.
Win bet on Medermit @ 5/1 with William Hill
Note: Medermit is also entered in The Jewson Novices Chase, but is only quoted for that race by William Hill and Bet365.
