Big thanks for Graham Richards for the this article. JP
GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS OVER PAST 10 YEARS
| Date | Going | Winner | Odds | Trainer | Age | Weight | OR | Jockey (Clm) |
| 2016 | Soft | Rule The World | 33/1 | Morris M F | 9 | 10-7 | 148 | Mullins Mr D J |
| 2015 | Good To Soft | Many Clouds (IRE) | 25/1 | Sherwood O | 8 | 11-9 | 160 | Aspell L |
| 2014 | Good To Soft | Pineau De Re (FR) | 25/1 | Newland Dr R D P | 11 | 10-6 | 143 | Aspell L |
| 2013 | Good To Soft | Auroras Encore (IRE) | 66/1 | Smith Mrs S J | 11 | 10-3 | 137 | Mania R |
| 2012 | Good | Neptune Collonges (FR) | 33/1 | Nicholls P F | 11 | 11-6 | 157 | Jacob D |
| 2011 | Good | Ballabriggs (IRE) | 14/1 | McCain Jnr D | 10 | 11-0 | 150 | Maguire J |
| 2010 | Good | Don’t Push It (IRE) | 10/1 | O’Neill Jonjo | 10 | 11-5 | 153 | McCoy A P |
| 2009 | Good To Soft | Mon Mome (FR) | 100/1 | Williams Miss V | 9 | 11-0 | 148 | Treadwell L |
| 2008 | Good | Comply Or Die (IRE) | 7/1 | Pipe D E | 9 | 10-9 | 139 | Murphy T |
| 2007 | Good | Silver Birch (IRE) | 33/1 | Elliott Gordon | 10 | 10-6 | 138 | Power R M |
TEN YEAR TRENDS
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
8yo: 1-7-67; 9yo: 3-9-111; 10yo: 3-7-103; 11yo: 3-5-56; 12yo: 0-1-27; 13yo+: 0-1-9
Thirty-eight of the forty places were filled by horses aged eight to eleven-years
All three winners aged eight in the last thirty-years finished in the first five in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season. (Blaklion)
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-32; Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-8-91
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-188; Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-5-87
Eight of ten winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
Official Ratings
Horses rated 149 or higher: 4-10-134; Horses rated 136 to 148: 6-20-256; Horses rated 127 to 135: 0-0-8
Since 2009, twenty-seven of thirty-two places were filled by horses OR 143 or higher
Horses OR 142 or lower 1-4-94
Breeding (Win-Place-Runners)
Irish bred horses: 6-24-243
Recent/Past Form
Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first four on their last completed start
Seven of the last ten winners posted an RPR of 146 or higher on last chase start
The last ten winners had run three to six times since 1st September in the previous year
The last ten winners had run in at least ten chases
All ten winners had their last start between twenty-one and sixty days prior to the race
All winners had run since National weights announced
Five of the last ten winners had a run over hurdles in January, February, or March
Course form
Record of placed finishers from previous renewals 09UU49F0374UU02U4 (0-5-17)
Becher Chase winners PPFUPF60 (0-0-8) (Vieux Lion Rouge)
Only three of the last ten winners had previously run over the National
Race Position
Six of ten winners raced prominently; Three of ten winners raced in mid-division; One winner held up
SUMMARY BASED ON 10 YEAR TRENDS
Aged nine to eleven (or eight-year-old that finished in first the five in 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup)
No more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight
OR 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)
Finished in first three on last completed start; RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start
Won no more than one chase this season
Ran three to six times since September 2016 & run since 14th February 2017
Posted career highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)
Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+; Run over hurdles in 2017
Finished in the first three in a previous Welsh or Irish National
Previously won Class Two or Listed Chase
Minimum ten runs over fences; no more than twenty-four
Last start between twenty-one and sixty days previously
Selection:
BLAKLION
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