Grand National 10 year trends

Big thanks for Graham Richards for the this article. JP


Date Going Winner Odds Trainer Age Weight OR Jockey (Clm)
2016 Soft Rule The World 33/1 Morris M F 9 10-7 148 Mullins Mr D J
2015 Good To Soft Many Clouds (IRE) 25/1 Sherwood O 8 11-9 160 Aspell L
2014 Good To Soft Pineau De Re (FR) 25/1 Newland Dr R D P 11 10-6 143 Aspell L
2013 Good To Soft Auroras Encore (IRE) 66/1 Smith Mrs S J 11 10-3 137 Mania R
2012 Good Neptune Collonges (FR) 33/1 Nicholls P F 11 11-6 157 Jacob D
2011 Good Ballabriggs (IRE) 14/1 McCain Jnr D 10 11-0 150 Maguire J
2010 Good Don’t Push It (IRE) 10/1 O’Neill Jonjo 10 11-5 153 McCoy A P
2009 Good To Soft Mon Mome (FR) 100/1 Williams Miss V 9 11-0 148 Treadwell L
2008 Good Comply Or Die (IRE) 7/1 Pipe D E 9 10-9 139 Murphy T
2007 Good Silver Birch (IRE) 33/1 Elliott Gordon 10 10-6 138 Power R M


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

8yo: 1-7-67; 9yo: 3-9-111; 10yo: 3-7-103; 11yo: 3-5-56; 12yo: 0-1-27; 13yo+: 0-1-9

Thirty-eight of the forty places were filled by horses aged eight to eleven-years

All three winners aged eight in the last thirty-years finished in the first five in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season. (Blaklion)

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-32; Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-8-91

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-188; Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-5-87

Eight of ten winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight

Official Ratings

Horses rated 149 or higher: 4-10-134; Horses rated 136 to 148: 6-20-256; Horses rated 127 to 135: 0-0-8

Since 2009, twenty-seven of thirty-two places were filled by horses OR 143 or higher

Horses OR 142 or lower 1-4-94

Breeding (Win-Place-Runners)

Irish bred horses: 6-24-243

Recent/Past Form

Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first four on their last completed start

Seven of the last ten winners posted an RPR of 146 or higher on last chase start

The last ten winners had run three to six times since 1st September in the previous year

The last ten winners had run in at least ten chases

All ten winners had their last start between twenty-one and sixty days prior to the race

All winners had run since National weights announced

Five of the last ten winners had a run over hurdles in January, February, or March

Course form

Record of placed finishers from previous renewals 09UU49F0374UU02U4 (0-5-17)

Becher Chase winners PPFUPF60 (0-0-8) (Vieux Lion Rouge)

Only three of the last ten winners had previously run over the National

Race Position

Six of ten winners raced prominently; Three of ten winners raced in mid-division; One winner held up


Aged nine to eleven (or eight-year-old that finished in first the five in 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup)

No more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight

OR 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)

Finished in first three on last completed start; RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start

Won no more than one chase this season

Ran three to six times since September 2016 & run since 14th February 2017

Posted career highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)

Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+; Run over hurdles in 2017

Finished in the first three in a previous Welsh or Irish National

Previously won Class Two or Listed Chase

Minimum ten runs over fences; no more than twenty-four

Last start between twenty-one and sixty days previously



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