Gold Cup/ Champion Chase/ Ryanair 2013FSF: Graham Richards Form; Speed rating TF: Timeform rating RPR: Racing Post rating
It is important to note that despite the FSF rating being a lesser figure than the other two; it is the difference between individual horses’ figure that is the guide. In addition, FSF is a form and speed figure. I have Sprinter Sacre top by 5lb, whereas Timeform have him 8lb clear.
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FSF
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TF
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RPR
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Sprinter Sacre
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Unbeaten over fences and the possessor of enormous form and speed figures. Despite being entered in the Champion Chase and the Ryanair, there is a distinct possibility both Sizing Europe and Finian’s Rainbow will head for the latter. Cue Card looks held by the Sprinter Sacre over this two-miles; he too possesses a Ryanair entry. Sanctuaire is a law unto himself; once again, he looks short of what is needed, even at his best. Indeed it may be Flemenstar that provides his stiffest opposition. Sprinter Sacre is yet to make a discernible mistake over fences. How he reacts, should that happen, will be interesting to view. 2/5 with some bookmakers may look generous on paper. However, I am not sure twelve fences round Prestbury Park at those odds, would be the best way to enjoy the race. Looking ahead, I believe “SS” has enough stamina in his breeding to make the King George a viable target.
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161
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183
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180
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Sizing Europe
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This chap has been a wonderful servant to connections. From twenty-one runs over fences, he is yet to finish out of the first three. That, after a highly commendable hurdle career. His FSF ratings displays he is just as effective over two and two and a half-miles. With Sprinter Sacre looming large, one imagines he will be sent in the Ryanair direction. However, connections should not be afraid of one horse and he is well suited to a fast run two-miles around Cheltenham.
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156
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172
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176
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Bobs Worth
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Improving, uncomplicated, top-class chaser that is four from four at Cheltenham. He stays well, appears best on good or good to soft and has improved throughout his career. Returning to action in the Hennessy Gold Cup last December, he ran out a ready winner from Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. Whilst looking a worthy favourite, it cannot be in his favour to arrive at Cheltenham, for the toughest assignment of his career, without the benefit of a recent run.
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155
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175
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174
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Tidal Bay
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Tidal Bay has been a revelation since joining Paul Nicholls. Having bolted up in the John Smiths Hurdle at Wetherby last November, he finished a gallant second in the Hennessy Gold Cup under a huge weight. Following that, he went on to snatch the Lexus Chase out of the fire in a tremendous four-way finish. His Festival target has yet be decided (entered in the World Hurdle and Gold Cup). If returning from a slight setback in similar form, there will jockeys looking over their shoulder for his strong finish up the hill.
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154
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174
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174
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Finian’s Rainbow
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Won the Champion Chase in 2012 and followed up with an easy win in the Melling Chase. Opinions are divided as to wether Sizing Europe was an unlucky loser due to the last fence fracas in the Champion Chase. However, his Melling win was authorative and logically points the way to the Ryanair. His return to action on atrocious ground at Ascot can be forgotten. It is clear to me a spring campaign is foremost in connections thoughts. That may see him arriving at Cheltenham without a prep-run, not an ideal scenario for any horse at this level.
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154
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174
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175
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Silviniaco Conti
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Silviniaco Conti has won all his races between November and March. He has improved 18lb on official ratings following wins at Wetherby and the Betfred Chase at Haydock Park. Despite the improvement shown this season, my feeling is that he is always going to be at his very best, on a less demanding and undulating track, than Cheltenham.
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153
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169
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173
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Long Run
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For a horse that has never finished out of the first three, it seems churlish to question whether we will see the very best of this horse again. However, his 2012 ratings on the right display that possibility. At his best, they would read 159, 182, and 181. A drop of between 7-9lb. Long Run’s jumping has never been what one could describe as fluent. It says a lot for his natural ability, he has been able to win a Gold Cup and King George since arriving in the UK. The recent announcement that Long Run is to go straight for the Gold Cup, is for me, a wise decision. If one looks at his three Festival runs, the best came when he had a break of around seven weeks. On the other two occasions, he arrived off four or five week breaks. Indeed, he broke the course record when winning the 2012 Denman Chase. In addition, if one views his RPR’s of 180 and 181, all have been achieved on good or good to soft. Taking all that into consideration, I feel the 7/1 on offer is a tempting each-way proposition.
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152
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173
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174
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Cue Card
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Found out by the King George trip, Cue Card has the Champion Chase and Ryanair as viable targets in March. A horse that goes particularly well when fresh, lack of a recent run would not be a concern as far as I am concerned. We may find the Ryanair shaping up into such a competitive race, that connections of horses such as Cue Card, fire for the stars in the Champion Chase. Twelve fences around Prestbury Park has seen many dramas unfold. In addition, the prize money for finishing second in the Champion Chase will be enough to make connections think long and hard. Seventeen horses are entered in the Champion Chase with thirty-nine in the Ryanair. Nine are doubly entered.
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152
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169
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170
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The Giant Bolster
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Runner-up in the 2012 Gold Cup, The Giant Bolster ran a mighty race to finish third in the Betfair Chase before disappointing at Kempton Park; a track he patently disliked. Given his affinity with Cheltenham, I suggest he will run well again, without perhaps being good enough to win. Appears to be at his best on good or good to soft.
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152
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165
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170
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Riverside Theatre
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Consistent form over the past two seasons culminated in a remarkable win in the 2012 Ryanair Chase. Never looking comfortable at any stage, both he and Mr Geraghty deserve the utmost credit for tenacity and perseverance. The heavy ground in the King George at Kempton Park would not have been ideal. However, he needs to bounce back from that effort to retain his hold on the Ryanair Chase. Despite his win in the Ryanair, his chasing profile displays he is best going right-handed over two and half-miles to two and three-quarter-miles.
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151
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168
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172
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Flemenstar
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Exciting chaser who jumps and travels brilliantly in his races. Following two easy wins a Navan and Punchestown; he was sent off favourite for the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. One again he travelled sweetly and jumped his way to the front after the second last. Looking sure to prevail at the last fence, his stamina began to ebb away on the run-in. We should lean more when he contests the Hennessy back at Leopardstown. Given his jumping ability and the way he travels, I hope he is dispatched for the Champion Chase. It could develop into the race of the meeting.
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151
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175
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171
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Captain Chris
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Looking at Captain Chris’s profile, his best trip appears to be two and a half-miles up to three-miles. Whilst his dam was successful in Ireland over three-miles, all her best form came between two and two and a half-miles. His sire does get stayers, though his best chasing offspring are more effective at mid-distances. Beaten six-lengths in the 2012 Ryanair, his improved form this season puts him in the firing line, if sent in that direction.
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151
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168
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170
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Sir Des Champs
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Improving young chaser who has not jumped or travelled as well in his races as he did last season. That I believe is due to the ground. His best form has come on good or good to soft, which enables him to travel and jump far more fluently. I remember his win in the Jewson last year; he never appeared in the slightest danger from five out. His sires’ best offspring, whilst staying three-miles, have yet to prove themselves out and out stayers. His dam stayed two and half-miles, though her sire was an influence for stamina. At this stage of his career, I am not convinced he will prove best at three and a quarter-miles. The Hennessy Gold Cup should provide further clues.
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150
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170
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168
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Sanctuaire
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The “Balotelli” of the racing world, Sanctuaire has the ability to impress and frustrate in equal measure. He has won on left and right-handed tracks on good through to heavy. His only entry at present is the Champion Chase; though his ratings suggest he has a lot to find on a “going” day.
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150
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165
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171
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First Lieutenant
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Game and consistent performer who appears, on the evidence seen, just below the very best chasers. He has run creditably this season and has a good record at Cheltenham. Once again, he will arrive a fresh horse following a run in December. In addition, there is little doubt he improves in the spring. His best seasonal form has come on good ground at Cheltenham; he looks sure to be thereabouts, if seeing the extended trip out.
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150
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168
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168
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Somersby
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Returned to action with an honourable third to “SS” at Cheltenham. Looking at his best FSF ratings, I believe that while effective at Cheltenham, he is best over two and a quarter to two and a half-miles on a right-handed track. Good or good to soft are his favoured ground conditions.
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148
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165
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169
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Menorah
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I think it is fair to say Menorah’s chasing career has not always gone smoothly. When he is at his best, he is a Grade One performer. He loves Kempton Park and Aintree, and is effective on good through too heavy. It is worth noting his chase wins have come in single-figure fields, something he is unlikely to face at Cheltenham.
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147
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165
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167
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China Rock
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Talented horse that has run well at the highest level for three years. Whilst he stays three-miles one gets the impression the Gold Cup trip stretched him last season. That leaves the Ryanair as a suitable target. Effective on good through to heavy his very best form has come at Punchestown and Down Royal, both right-handed tracks.
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144
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165
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168
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Champion Court
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This fellow has run two highly promising races this season. Second to the useful William’s Wishes at Ascot over an inadequate two miles, he then failed to stay three-miles in the King George at Kempton Park. Whilst he has something to find on ratings, the Ryanair looks an obvious target. At eight-years, he should have further improvement in him. Good or good to soft around the two and a half-mile mark, appear his optimum requirements.
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143
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155
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161
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Hunt Ball
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Made remarkable progress through 2011-12, culminating in a runaway win at the Festival and a fine third in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree. Second in the Peterborough Chase run at Kempton Park in 2012, he appears best suited to two-miles five-furlongs or three-miles, on a flat track. One wonders if connections may try another handicap win at Cheltenham as he looks just short of what is needed at Grade One level.
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142
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157
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163
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Imperial Commander
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Returned from an enforced absence to run a mighty race in the Argento Chase. Jumping well, he looked to have the race in safe-keeping until Mr O’Reagan conjured up a tremendous finish from Cape Tribulation. However, when one looks at both the form of the race and the ratings, it suggests he needs to improve 12lb to regain the Gold Cup he won in 2010.
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141
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161
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159
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Cape Tribulation
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Likeable horse that stays well and is effective on good to soft through to heavy. His jumping technique has improved to such an extent, that he was able to snatch the Argento Chase out of the fire in a pulsating finish with Imperial Commander. As with Imperial Commander, improvement will be needed to make the frame if he runs in the Gold Cup.
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141
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164
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166
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Quito De La Roque
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Strong, staying, chaser capable of landing another Grade One Chase in heavy ground. He appears to be particularly effective going right-handed these days.
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140
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156
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164
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