Cheltenham Festival 2014 Preview – The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

This Grade 3 handicap hurdle is named in honour of one of the greatest trainers. Run on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival over a distance of two miles, the race has been dominated by the Irish in recent years.

Official rating has been a strong trend in the past ten years, with a winner above 139 only occurring once. No horse has carried a weight of more than 11-1 to victory in that time. Five and six year old’s have won eight of the last ten. The above also shows that if the Irish don’t win, then Paul Nicholls probably will. Not surprisingly it’s the Irish that head the betting for this year’s renewal with Gilgamboa at 10/1. So let’s take a look at the leading contenders before deciding on the likely winner. Gilgamboa Head of the betting and the obvious place to start. Won a big field handicap hurdle at Leopardstown in January. Owned by JP McManus and therefore likely to have a certain AP McCoy on top. Impressive at Leopardstown, staying on powerfully to be Flaxen Flare. Bred to stay further, which is always a good thing at Cheltenham. He’s a six-year-old and likely to get in rated in the high 130’s. Has to have a great chance. Dell’ Arca Winner of the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and second in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Clearly well suited to the big handicaps. A talented French import running for the Pipe team. Also entered in the Supreme but probably lacks the class for that. Off a mark of 136 in the Betfair and already a course winner at Cheltenham. A five-year-old who has to have a great chance. Quick Jack Trained in Ireland by Tony Martin. Won a handicap at Cheltenham in November. Was behind Gilgamboa and Flaxen Flare at Leopardstown, though likely to meet them on better terms. Assuming he gets in the race, he will be down the lower end of the weights. He’s a five-year-old who cannot be discounted. Cheltenian Champion bumper winner at Cheltenham in 2011. Ran a belter in the Betfair Hurdle for the in-form Philip Hobbs stable. Off a tasty mark of 134 he has plenty of class. He is however an eight-year-old and neither Irish or Nicholls trained. Lac Fontana Twice a winner this season at Cheltenham, last time on Festival Trials Day, and trained by Paul Nicholls. A five-year-old likely to run off a mark in the mid 130’s. Was impressive last time, though the form is questionable. He’s a son of one of this season’s top sires, Shirocco. Sametegal Another Nicholls French import who chased home Dell’ Arca in the Greatwood Hurdle, but has been slightly disappointing since. Rated 150 when only fifth at Musselburgh in the Scottish County Hurdle. He looks to be too high in the handicap to win this one, though the five-year-old certainly loves the course. Flaxen Flare Off a mark of 142 when second to Gilgamboa at Leopardstown. This fella is a Festival winner having won the Fred Winter last year. Another five-year-old, he was fourth to Dell’ Arca in the Greatwood and will meet him on better terms. This horse has the perfect profile and cannot be discounted. Bayan Like Flaxen Flare he is trained by Gordon Elliott. Second to Sametegal back in October at Cheltenham. Another five-year-old, he has not been seen since November when running on the flat just behind Quick Jack. Will run off a mark in the high 130’s which could prove to be very fair. Currently 20/1 in the market. Willow’s Saviour Terrific winner of the Ladbroke back in December. Had Flaxen Flare behind. Rated 143 which looks a high enough mark for this, and he’s a seven-year-old. A slight injury kept him out of the Betfair but expected to take his place at the Festival. Still one to consider after such an impressive win at Ascot. Though these appear to be the main contenders at present, it would be no surprise to see an unconsidered Irish novice turn up in this. A horse such as Minella Foru would arrive in the County off a very attractive mark in those famous JP McManus colours. At this stage, of the ones I think most likely to run, I have to fancy Gilgamboa, Dell’ Arca and Flaxen Flare. One thing is certain. Expect a powerful Irish presence in a race that honours one of their greatest.