Cheltenham Festival 2014: Champion Hurdle Preview and Ratings

Whilst some have suggested that Hurricane Fly does not show his best form at Cheltenham, the ratings and odds suggest otherwise. His highest RPR is 173, which he has achieved at Leopardstown, Punchestown, and Cheltenham. His best speed figure (on my ratings) was achieved when third in the 2012 Champion Hurdle. My figures suggest he has to find 5lb from his last run to achieve a similar RPR figure recorded last March. Given Willie Mullins upbeat comments on his progress this season, that appears achievable. MTOY and The New One are closely matched on running at Kempton Park over Christmas. Even allowing for The New One’s mistake at the last, I feel MTOY can come out on top. I believe the Old Course will suit the Henderson horse better than The New One. In addition, experienced paddock-watchers felt MTOY was still not at full-fitness on Boxing Day. It looks likely there will be a good pace if Un De Sceaux takes his chance though one wonders if Thousand Stars entry is there for the same purpose. Jezki needs to find improvement and looks held on this seasons form. He will have his work cut out to reverse 2013 Supreme Novices hurdle form with MTOY. Our Conor can improve his figure. His trainer has been upbeat over his progress since Leopardstown in late December. The last five-year-old to win the race was Katchit in 2008. I believe that was a sub-standard affair displayed by his RPR of 165, some 8lb below “The Fly’s” best figure. Prior to 2008, See You Then was a five-year-old winner in 1985. Annie Power is the subject of much speculation. Unbeaten throughout her career and impressive in horrific conditions at Cheltenham in January, her 7lb mares’ allowance may play an integral part in the outcome of her chosen race. Whilst she stays two and a half-miles, her breeding does not scream out and out stayer. Therefore, at this stage the Champion Hurdle would appear the ideal race, though the “Mares’ Only” race is over two and a half-miles. It should not be forgotten she is in different ownership to “The Fly,” Quevega, and Un De Sceaux.Un De Sceaux is also unbeaten. He is a wonderful sight in full flow, hurdling and galloping his rivals into submission. Yet to be challenged in a race, he is hard to assess. There is no doubt he is close to top-class, though Cheltenham will be a new and different test. Despite appearing to relish soft/heavy ground, he won an AQPS race on good to soft; his sire gets good ground

Updates

Annie Power bolted up at Doncaster without improving either her Timeform or RPR figure. This was her third win in the UK. The furthest she has gone is two and a half-miles and she does not look devoid of speed suggesting the Mares Hurdle may come into play along with the Champion Hurdle. Annie Power tends to race with the choke out leading one to suggest at this stage of her career one the shorter trips may prove the way to go. With Quevega pleasing at home and the race seemingly up for grabs, a shot at the World Hurdle may be on the cards. Her form in the Punchestown version of the World Hurdle is rock solid.

Hurricane Fly completed his third win in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. The race clocked a time just under two seconds slower than the maiden hurdle. Despite an untidy jump at the last flight, “The Fly” found enough reserves to hold off the persistent challenge of Our Conor. The latter is improving all the time (experienced paddock-watchers felt the horse was still short of full-fitness) but may lack the strength for a Champion Hurdle at this stage of his career. However, it is worth noting he improved his best juvenile RPR by 14lb when successful in the Triumph Hurdle. Jezki is not going to improve into a dangerous opponent until he settles in his races. A strong pace will help him, though it will not inconvenience others in the race.

 If Un De Sceaux and Thousand Stars turn up for the fun, a strong pace looks likely. Last year there was a strong pace in the early stages with Rock On Ruby, (wearing blinkers for the first time) making the running. Compared to the 2012 renewal, a five-second slower time was clocked from the third last to the winning post. Having taken an age to get into full-stride, the pace collapse clearly suited “The Fly.” One hopes there will be a strong, even, pace from the start. Looking at the ratings below improvement is needed to match “The Fly’s” 2013 figure. However, if he dips below that figure, the race appears up for grabs. All other figures were achieved were 2014.