2014 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – Trends, Preview and Tips

Nicky Henderson’s Dawalan has been awarded favouritism in this year’s Fred Winter and is available at around 7/1.

Ante-post watchers can crawl through the entries looking for the faintest clues of a Sanctuaire-like plot. What should serve punters well is to adhere to the prevailing trends in this devilishly tough handicap hurdle.

• 8/9 rated between 124 – 133
• 8/9 were sired by a Group 1 flat winner
• 6/9 won within their last two starts
• 6/9 won carrying at least 10st 13lb
• 5/9 won their last start
• 5/42 of the horses rated 120 or below were placed

Henderson’s Dawalan enters the fray with likeable credentials. The horse achieved a RPR of 89 on the flat and has won within his last two starts. The French-bred will carry 11-0 and is a strong contender based on the key trends of the race. Henderson won the race in 2012 with the 40/1 shot Une Artiste and stands a great chance of making the frame.

Oliver Sherwood enters the intriguing 14/1 shot, Carry On Sydney. The trainer recently remarked that the horse was notably laid-back, but has some decent form this season, including a one-and-a-half length defeat to Dawalan in January. Off 10-4 the horse has seen his price chipped away with the knowledge that Sherwood’s had the Fred Winter as a target for a while.

Dispour may well be the pick of Donald McCain’s two entries. Priced at 33/1, his last two runs were fairly miserable including a thirty length defeat to My Tent Or Yours in February’s Jumpers’ Bumper. He’ll run off a decent mark and answers some of the key trends required to get into the shake-up. McCain named the horse as one of his most promising at the beginning of the season and could be a shrewd each-way play.

Preference is for Clarcam from Gordon Elliott’s yard. He’s never finished outside of the top three since joining Elliott and finished a good second in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial at Musselburgh recently. He’ll run off a good mark and is genuine enough to give backers value in a minefield of a race. Clarcam can be backed today at 16/1.

Looking back at the history of the race, only two of the previous nine winners had won one of their first two starts. Those horses had scope to improve at an attractive pace with the handicapper, affording them the chance to enter this race with eye catching performances. The last two years have produced winners at big prices – Flaxen Flare (25/1) & Une Artiste (40/1).

Selection – Clarcam – 20/1 (E/W) with William Hill

Selection – Carry On Sydney – 14/1 (E/W) with William Hill

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