Cheltenham Gold Cup 2017

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP 2017

FSFs (Form & Speed Figure)

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THISTLECRACK’s rise up the chasing ranks has been nothing short of spectacular. His hurdle FSF is higher than his chase rating due to a better speed figure over the smaller obstacles. He trades at what is, in my opinion, a ridiculous price given we only have the King George to assess his chance in the context of this event. Whilst his stamina appears assured both on performances and breeding, his jumping gave some concern at Kempton Park. Spectacular at some fences, one wonders if he stands off the fences at Cheltenham, as he did that day, whether he will stay on his feet. The winning margin did not reflect his superiority over his rivals. This enabled Mr Scudamore to virtually “School” THISTLECRACK up the home straight to win easing down. CUE CARD ran well below his best, while SILVINIACO CONTI and TEA FOR THREE cannot be considered realistic Gold Cup contenders at this stage. We know he acts and enjoys Cheltenham’s unique track, while it is clear his engine is firing on all of its many cylinders. It is reasonable to suggest his class and relentless galloping will see him clear of his field half a mile from home. Should that happen, it is hard to see anything living with him in the closing stages. Cast your mind back to the 2016 Stayers Hurdle. Two hurdles from home he took over at the head of affairs, effortlessly coming further and further clear on the run to the glory line. CUE CARD, below his best at Kempton Park looked as good as ever in the Betfair Chase. He needs to prove he will get up the hill, which, in my opinion, is open to question. With two Gold Cup runner-up spots, it says much for DJAKADAM’s natural ability that he will go into the race an eight-year-old. To even out those two runs, he has fallen twice at Prestbury Park. He acts on most ground underhoof though is arguably best on soft/heavy. NATIVE RIVER has done nothing but improve this season with a Hennessey Gold Cup and Welsh National on his C.V. He has a similar profile to 2012 winner Synchronised. That year he beat The Giant Bolster and a below par Long Run. He will need a strong pace to prove competitive in the closing stages. However, he is a game and consistent chaser that will try all the way from the home turn up to the finish. OUTLANDER has improved around 17lb since moving to Mr Elliott. He looked strong at the finish of the Lexus Chase suggesting this longer trip should not prove beyond his capabilities. He was still in with a chance when falling at the fourth last in the 2016 JLT Chase. At nine-years he should be ready to runs a mighty race. SUB LIEUTENANT has been discussed in the paragraph above. DON POLI looked back to his best in the Lexus. He appears best when fresh, which may scupper a potential assault on the Grand National some twenty-two days away. SMAD PLACE, CARLINGFORD LOUGH, MANY CLOUDS, ROAD TO RICHES, and SILVINIACO CONTI all deserve a mention though time may have caught up with them in the context of this race.

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