Cheltenham Clues
Champion Hurdle – Ratings and thoughts
|
FSF |
FORM ONLY |
|
|
HURRICANE FLY |
168 |
174 |
|
MY TENT OR YOURS |
165 |
169 |
|
THE NEW ONE |
163 |
169 |
|
JEZKI |
163 |
167 |
|
ZARKANDAR |
160 |
165 |
|
OUR CONOR |
159 |
165 |
|
GRANDOUET |
159 |
164 |
|
ANNIE POWER |
158 |
164 |
|
P’TIT ZIG |
154 |
159 |
|
UN DE SCEAUX |
153 |
157 |
|
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS |
153 |
155 |
Whilst some have suggested that Hurricane Fly does not show his best form at Cheltenham, the ratings suggest otherwise. His highest RPR is 173, which he has achieved at Leopardstown, Punchestown, and Cheltenham. His best speed figure (on my ratings) was achieved when third in the 2012 Champion Hurdle. My figures suggest he has to find 5lb from his last run to achieve a similar RPR figure recorded last March. Given Willie Mullins upbeat comments on his progress this season, that appears achievable.
MTOY (My Tent Or Yours) and The New One are closely matched on running at Kempton Park over Christmas. Even allowing for The New One’s mistake at the last I feel MTOY can come out on top. I feel the Old Course will suit the Henderson horse better than The New One, while experienced paddock-watchers felt MTOY was still not at full-fitness on Boxing Day. It looks likely there will be a good pace on whether it be Un De Sceaux or a Twiston-Davies pacesetter.
Jezki needs to find improvement and looks held on this seasons form. He will have his work cut out to reverse 2013 Supreme Novices hurdle form with MTOY.
Our Conor can improve his figure. His trainer has been upbeat over his progress since Leopardstown in late December. The last five-year-old to win the race was Katchit in 2008. I believe that was a sub-standard affair displayed by his RPR of 165, some 8lb below The Fly’s best figure. Prior to 2008, See You Then was a five-year-old winner in 1985.
Annie Power is the subject of much speculation. Unbeaten through her career and impressive in horrific conditions last time out, her 7lb mares’ allowance may play an integral part in the outcome of her chosen race. Whilst she stays two and a half-miles, her breeding does not scream out and out stayer. Therefore, at this stage the Champion Hurdle would appear the ideal race, though the OLBG Mares Hurdle race is over two and a half-miles. It should not be forgotten she is in different ownership to The Fly, Quevega, and Un De Sceaux.
Un De Sceaux is also unbeaten. He is a wonderful sight in full flow, hurdling and galloping his rivals into submission. Yet to be challenged in a race, he is hard to assess. There is no doubt he is close to top-class, though Cheltenham will be a new and different test. Despite appearing to relish soft/heavy ground, he won an AQPS race on good to soft while his sire gets good ground performers, as does the sire of his dam.
