Imperial to take command in Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010

I'll be cheering for Kauto Star to complete an historic four timer in the King George tomorrow, but I'm going to put up Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup so will be looking for a good run from him too.

Seemingly a two horse race between Kauto Star and Denman, there are not many other genuine contenders for the Gold Cup and the race lacks strength in depth. The selections on this blog are all about value and the 12/1 with totepsport about Imperial Commander is great value. In Imperial Commander we have an improving young classy chaser who loves Cheltenham.

The most recent evidence we have on the relative merits of Kauto Star is the Betfair Chase at Haydock where Imperial Commander proved a lot of doubters wrong by staying the 3 mile trip and coming within a whisker of beating Kauto Star. Kauto Star is 9/4 for the Gold Cup and Imperial Commander is 12/1. So the bookies are saying that Kauto Star has a five times greater chance of winning the big race? Mmmm. The Haydock race showed an was improved performance from eight year old Imperial Commander and at this optimum age for a chaser he is likely to improve again.

Kauto Star and Denman will both be ten years old when March comes around. The last ten year old winner was in 1998, Cool Dawn.

Denman's performance in the Hennessy Gold Cup was just awesome and if in good health he will also be a factor but he is the same price as Kauto.

Imperial Commander loves Cheltenham having won five times including victories in the the Ryanair at Festival 2009 and the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2008.

It will be fascinating to see how he gets on in the King George tomorrow. His record would suggest he doesn't operate well on right handed tracks (although he's only tried twice) although his past performances also suggested he wouldn't stay three miles. If he can finish close to Kauto Star then his odds for the Gold Cup will fall and should he finish in front of him they will collapse. He is an excellent each way alternative to the big two at the prices.

So at a standout 12/1 with totesport now is a great time to back the Commander.

Recommended bet: 1 point ew Imperial Commander 12/1 - totesport

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day to be a Bank Holiday

Let's campaign to make Cheltenham Gold Cup Day a Bank Holiday. N. Brien has submitted a petition to the Prime Minister's website and I've set up a Facebook group so let's see what support we can get. After all, it worked for Rage Against the Machine. Here are five great reasons for making Gold Cup Day a Bank Holiday:

1) British workers have the fewest public holidays in Europe, compared to 11 in France, 12 in Italy and between nine and 12 in Germany.
2) It works for the Melbourne Cup in Australia - the race that stops a nation.
3) More people will have the opportunity to get involved in this unique and special sporting event without necessarily attending.
4) The temporary staff hired for the Friday would earn double-pay which would flow back into the local economy.
5) Local people who don't like racing can go away for a long weekend and free up the town for Gold Cup day and night celebrations

Edward Gillespie, Cheltenham Racecourse supremo said, "I suspect the idea comes from Australia and the Melbourne Cup. I believe that is a public holiday and everyone in the country watches the race. In fact I can't think of a better way to spend a Friday in March than having a day off to watch the Gold Cup, well done to whoever has come up with this petition."

Christine Tustin, tourism manager at Cheltenham Borough Council, said: "Gold Cup Day is such a different day in Cheltenham anyway and affects everything in town so we might as well have a holiday. It would also be amazing for one of the county's public holidays to have Cheltenham in the name."

Join the Facebook campaign group
Sign the petition for the Prime Minister

10 things UK racecourses could learn from Santa Anita

It's interesting to see that Kempton are going to encourage racegoers to wave placards with the number 4 on them if Kauto Star wins the King George on Boxing Day. This innovation echoes the numerous Zenayatta and Girl Power placards that I saw at the Breeders Cup last month. It certainly helped build up the atmosphere at Santa Anita so it will be interesting to see how it works at Kempton and whether people wave them before and during the race. Perhaps people will make and bring their own?

I think it's a fantastic idea although I do understand Paul Nicholls concern expressed in yesterday's Racing Post about spooking a horse. I think if people are sensible though it would be fine. Whilst I applaud the idea I think it could be a while before we see a Cheltenham Annual Member waving a 'Go Kauto' banner but 'racing' has to innovate and adapt. This is a great example of an idea that will appeal to younger racegoers, particularly those who attend cricket and football. Below are nine other ideas that we could use. It's a bit of a wish list, in that some of the ideas and actions would require considerable investment but the majority are simple, cheap and very achievable.

Reduce ticket prices - £6($10) to attend the world's richest sports event and £50($86) for equivalent tickets (Tatts) for Gold Cup day. Over 8 times as much! A different racing economy I know but prices need to come down. Towcester are leading the way by offering free admission so it can be done. Other ideas would be to provide free betting (or food and drink) vouchers with tickets like Newbury are doing on Tuesday 29 Dec.

Reduce drink prices - drink in racecourse bars such as Cheltenham are too expensive. £3.80 for a pint is just wrong. I haven't included food as I've given up eating at racecourses due to costs and queuing a long time ago, so have no ideas of current costs although I still see the queues.

Free and surfaced car parks - charging for parking is irritating at best and is another reason no to go racing at worse. At the Cheltenham Festival, Royal Ascot, King George at Kempton and Hennessy Gold Cup I have to park in a field and am charged for this. The first two are world class sporting events - not acceptable in the 21st century.

Free transport from train and bus stations - free comfortable buses were laid on to and from the nearest train station to Santa Anita. At the Cheltenham Boylesports meeting punters getting off trains had to wait around 30 mins for a £7 taxi to the course.

Very large numbers on cloths - such a simple idea to have the American style very large numbers to help racegoers (and the commentator) identify the horses. I doubt if there is much or any additional cost so why don't they do this? A no brainer.

Better access to horses and jockeys - Racecourses are generally structured so that horses and jockeys are kept at arms length from the crowds. Obviously there are safety issues with the horses but at the Breeders Cup you could talk to and take photos of jockeys quite easily and get to within 4 feet of a horse on it's way to post...and it was busy. Edward Gillespie was recently quoted as saying his best improvement to Cheltenham was the walkway in front of the stands. The crowds love to see the horses and jockeys walk back after the races and celebrate the winner. More of this please.

More place to sit down - Despite being young(ish) and fit it's relaxing to be able to take the weight of your feet and read the paper or have a coffee during racing and yet it can be so difficult to find anywhere to sit down. It's great to see that Cheltenham have made improvements in this area this season with loads more benches around. Such an easy thing to do - other courses please take note.

Audible racecourse commentary - How many times have you wanted to watch a race on TV and there is no commentary or even worse a different commentary? This isn't just a racecourse thing but a bookies one too. It's rare to find a TV in a bar or at totesport outlet or even on course betting shop with a commentary or one you can actually hear. Again, such an easy thing to fix that would improve the racegoers experience.

Feature race at end of card - Why do we have the feature race in the middle of the racecard? Perhaps it's for TV scheduling reasons but like the Breeeders' Cup it should be the last race on the card. The atmosphere before the Breeders' Cup Classic was explosive as throughout the card it had been fizzing away with people talking about who was going to win, and yes there were Zenyatta banners everywhere. The best race should be the Grand Finale, the climax of the meeting with the other races building up to it. People sloping off after the Cheltenham Gold Cup does not help the atmosphere. The Festival has a fantastic atmosphere but it could be better. This simple step would help all meetings not just the big ones.

Santa Anita gets the above right. Added together they make a real difference to the racing experience. Let's hope that Racing for Change (Racing Enterprises Ltd) are considering these ideas in their proposals and if not I hope they are reading this. Please comment on these ideas and feel free to add your own suggestions below.

Bensalem to be RSA King at Cheltenham Festival 2010

Bensalem is my selection for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 2010 on Wednesday 17 March 2010. Grab the 33/1 with the totesport as soon as you can. Free money is available for traders as the horse can be laid at 27 on Betfair so the price won't last for long. If Bensalem makes it to the race then I expect him to start at a single figure price on the day. The race has been a lucky one for me over the years with Lord Noelie, One Knight and Trabolgan all backed and tipped at 33/1. So can Bensalem be another 33/1 winner?

For the full range of markets at the Cheltenham Festival please use the following link: Cheltenham Betting.

I think he can so let's look at his claims. Overall, he boost an excellent record over both hurdles and chases of 5 wins out of 7 starts having come 2nd in both defeats. The first of those was a close defeat to Diamond Harry who was extremely impressive at Haydock and takes on Big Bucks this weekend. The other was over an unsuitable distance, 2m 3f at Exeter, in his most recent run. Surprisingly he was pushed out from a best price 16/1 to a stand out 33/1 with totesport. Given the distance, the poor form of the Alan King yard and the fact the race was run on heavy, this run was fine and he will show dramatic improvement when sent over a trip closer to the 3 miles of the RSA Chase on better ground.

Bensalem has the typical profile of an RSA Chase winner. He's the right age (8 out of the last 10 winners were 7) and he's a late developing national hunt bred with good quality hurdle form from last season.

I can see the odds come tumbling down following his next outing over a longer trip and when  the Alan King stable is back in form. His bad form can't last the whole season...can it?

There are several other unexposed horses open to improvement and the favourite Punchestowns has to be a contender but my selections are all about value and at 33/1 Bensalem is worth a punt.

Recommended bet: 1 point ew Bensalem 33/1 - totesport

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle analysis

I've written the official analysis of the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle for the Betfair forum so reproduce it below. There is no recommended bet on this race at this stage although at this stage I'd side with Quel Esprit.

With three key horses having been in action at the weekend and William Hill and Paddy Power opening their books, now a good time to start looking at the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle.

Introduced as the Spa Hurdle in 2005 when the fourth day was added to the Festival, despite it’s short history it’s been won by English, Irish and French trained horses. Originally sponsored by Brit Insurance (until 2008 when it became a Grade 1) the race is open to four year old novice hurdlers and is run over three miles.

Whilst it’s looked upon as the poor relation to the Neptune Investment Novice’s Hurdle (the 2m 5f novice hurdle on the Wednesday) it’s been won by some good horses such as Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 and Wichita Lineman in 2007. Both were trained by Jonjo O’Neill and ridden by Tony McCoy.

Only five races to go on when looking at trends but fancied runners aged six or seven who have finished first or second in a graded race last time out should be on the short list, especially if trained by Jonjo and ridden by AP. As explained later Willie Mullins’ entries also merit respect.

Age: One seven year old, two six year olds and two five year olds have won

Distance: All winners had won over 2m 5f or further

Form: All winners had won or finished 2nd in a graded hurdle last time out

Betting: Favourite has won or placed every year and 9/1 was the biggest SP - Moulin Riche in 2005 and Nenuphar Collonges in 2008.

The main contenders at this stage are the Irish pair Quel Esprit and Shinrock Paddy and Tell Massini, all three of whom won at the weekend and are all five year olds. The problem with assessing the race at this stage is that any or all of these three, and indeed other horses quoted in the market, could run in the Neptune and of course not at the Festival at all.

Quel Esprit won a Grade 3 Novices Hurdle at Cork yesterday for Willie Mullins, who had his best ever Festival last March with three winners. The ground was heavy so very different from what he is likely to get on the 19 March 2010 and his form seems to indicate a preference for soft. However, with only 5 career runs this may be misleading and he jumped very well and quickened up to win very easily. A winner of four, with his only defeat being behind Dunguib in last year’s Champion Bumper and trained by Willie Mullins, he has to be taken seriously. After the race Mullins said: "Quel Esprit is at home over a trip, and we look forward to sending him over fences in the future. He'll be entered in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle and Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham."

Shinrock Paddy won at Navan in a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m 4f in the soft beating the favourite and another potential Willie Mullins’ Albert Bartlett contender Rhyl Accord. Willie will therefore have a line on how good the winner is compared with Quel Esprit. Shinrock Paddy was very impressive and like Quel Esprit is four wins from five with his defeat also coming in Festival Bumper. The trainer, Paul Nolan seems keen on going for the Albert Bartlett, "More than likely he's a stayer and with better ground likely during the spring we'll probably go three miles with him, so at this stage we'd be looking at the Albert Bartlett." Surprisingly, he’s not currently in the Betfair market for this race.

Tell Massini maintained his unbeaten record by beating a field full of winners in the 3 mile Grade 2 novices hurdle, sponsored by Albert Bartlett, on the Saturday of the Boylesports meeting when the ground was soft. He kept on strongly up the hill and did it well. He does seem to need soft ground which his trainer, Tom George confirmed: "He has to have soft ground, so we're not making any plans about the Festival at this stage. If the ground was right he might run, but he's going to be a chaser next season and everything will be geared to that."

From a racing history point of view the other horse worth mentioning is Gorge who, if all goes to plan, will be the first Australian runner at the Festival in this race. It will be interesting to follow his progress in the build up but given the low standard of jump racing down under I can’t see him mixing it with the best British and Irish novices here, so I don’t see him as a contender.

In summary, I’d side with Quel Esprit at this stage over Shinrock Paddy given Willie Mullins’ impressive record at the Festival, the fact he had the third in this last year with The Midnight Club and that Quel Esprit is Willie’s horse to follow on his website. Interestingly, his Black Harry wasn’t that far behind Wichita Lineman when toppling over at the last in 2007 and he also ran the well backed Uncle Junior in 2008 so Mullins does appear to train one for this. Quel Esprit is currently available at 6.4 to back in the Betfair market. Following Tom George’s comments on Tell Massini you could only consider him once running plans were confirmed.

Pointers for Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Boylesports review

A great weekend of sport and drama at the 2 day Boylesports meeting at Cheltenham. So what did we learn with regard to the Festival? On Friday, Weird Al looked the most imposing horse in the paddock before the opener and was impressive in the Novice Chase and jumped well throughout. Ian Williams is not a trainer associated with good long distance chasers but he looks to have one on his hands here. A step up in trip to the 3 miles off the RSA Chase looks as if it will suite and he could well factor when the race is run on 17 March 2010.

The last race of the day was billed as a rematch between Ghizao and Lidar but it was General Miller that came out on top to complete a hat trick. He will probably go for the Supreme along with Ghizao but I really can't see them troubling Dunguib at the moment. Lidar was most disappointing.

On Saturday, I was hoping for a heavenly performance from Celestial Halo but his halo wasn't shining after the race having been outpointed fair and square by Khyber Kim who normally struggles to put 2 good performances together. Khyber Kim seems to have improved enormously and/or Celestial Halo hasn't improved as much as anticipated. One poor run doesn't mean he's lost all chance of winning the Champion but this was disappointing. On the plus side he's in the best hands with Paul Nicholls and he did seemingly disappoint before winning the Triumph Hurdle in 2008 when napped by your blogger. Furthermore, his very best performances are on slightly better ground than yesterday...clutching at straws a bit here? Maybe! Punjabi was back in fourth and most commentators seemed to think that he blew up and is the one to take out  of the race. I'm not so sure and would consider this disappointing in the context of Nicky Henderson's current hot streak. The last race of the day went to Nicky Henderson's Zaynar who appeared to struggle a bit before coming out on top. He's now the new favourite for the Champion Hurdle but I can't have him. His preparation is very unusual and 5 year olds rarely win the Champion. Katchit in 2008 was the first since See You Then (trained by Henderson) in 1985. So in an open race Celestial Halo still has the chance to shine. Let's hope we see a better performance in his next race. Paul Nicholls stated today, "There are no plans yet as I've not discussed it with Andy (Stewart), but he'll have one run maybe two before the Champion. He got beat fair and square, but Cheltenham in March is a different day. It's an open race now and we've just got to try to get him a bit better than he was yesterday."

After the Paddy Power meeting I had some good words to say about Poquelin. Yesterday, Poquelin won the Boylesports Gold Cup and is now vying for favouritism with Voy Por Ustedes for the Ryanair. It was a taking performance and Paul Nicholls has confirmed today that he will be now be trained for the Festival with the Ryanair being his next race.

Keep your eye on the blog this week as I'm likely to post my selection for the RSA Chase, one of my favourite races and one in which my record is not too shabby.

Nicholls continues to be Mr Saturday

Another great day's racing on Saturday for National Hunt fans with Paul Nicholls doing it again in the big race with Twist Magic winning the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in great style. This follows victories for Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase and Denman in the Hennessy on the previous two weekends. Interesting the same three horses won the same three races in 2007 which just goes to show that Paul Nicholls is tremendous trainer of racehorses.


The Arkle Chase at Cheltenham Festival 2010 is shaping up to be a very competitive race with bookies offering 6 horses under 12/1. On Saturday the Henry VIII novices chase at Sandown saw Henrietta Knight's Somersby beat the Emma Lavelle trained Crack Away Jack. Somersby did it well in a fast time (over 2 seconds faster than Tingle Creek) and you can be sure he'll be trained to the minute with the Arkle in mind. However, I think that Crack Away Jack would have every chance of reversing the form in a big field on good ground, conditions he is likely to get at Cheltenham where he excels. He will need to brush up his jumping though.

In the Tingle Creek Twist Magic proved what a quality horse he can be on his day and ran his rivals ragged under Ruby Walsh who made it look easy. With regards to the Cheltenham Festival 2010, I would put a line through him as a) he doesn't perform well there and b) he can be a rogue and refuse to race. My pick for the Queen Mother, Forpadydeplasterer was the only one who could keep tabs on him. Big Zeb failed to jump properly as is often the case, Well Chief is not as good as he was and Mahogany Blaze was out of his depth. Given that he hated the ground and was nearly pulled out of the race by Thomas Cooper I thought he ran OK. The day that matters is the 17 March 2010 and he is bang on target for that and added to his record of finishing 1st or 2nd. This consistent horse has now finished 1st or 2nd in 11 out if his 12 races. The bookies agreed that this was a good trial and cut his odds further to as low as 8/1. He was recommended here at 20/1 on the 30th August so I hope you took the price.

An excellent weekend at the Boylesports in Cheltenham is in prospect. Let's hope Paul Nicholls can be Mr Saturday once again with Celestial Halo, my pick for the Champion Hurdle. Advised here at 14/1 he is now best priced 7/1 with Ladbrokes. I expect him to win well on Saturday and if he does 7/1 will look a good price on Saturday night.