I'm not generally a layer. I can't get into the psychology of wanting a horse to lose. But seeing a weak favourite doesn't mean you have to lay it. You can back an alternative in the same race if there are also good reason for it to win.
There are currently 15 horses under 4/1 at the Cheltenham Festival and they are not all going to win. Before you lump on a few favourites or combine them in accumulators it's worth noting that in 2008 13 horses started under 4/1 and only 2 won. Inglis Drever at 11/8 and Master Minded at 3/1. Over the past four Festivals there have been 99 horses sent of 4/1 or less of which just 23 have obliged. Below is a concise banker or blowout guide for the 15 short priced horses.
Dunguib - Banker - This horse excels in many areas and barring accidents will win easily.
Captain Cee Bee - Blowout - Jumps low and fast. A dangerous style over the Cheltenham fences.
Go Native - Blowout - In a very open race he has a good chance but no more so than many others.
Garde Champetre - Banker - I'm not a fan of the cross country race but this favourite should win.
Quevega - Blowout - Not raced this season so extremely hard to win on comeback.
Voler La Vedette - Banker - In the same race as Quevega. Race lacks strength and should win.
Rite Of Passage - Blowout - Hasn't won a graded race and price is based on potential only.
Long Run - Blowout - Amateur ridden and he's a difficult ride. Likely to make jumping errors.
Punchestowns - Blowout - In the same race as Long Run. Has been lame so has had interrupted preparation.
Master Minded - Blowout - Didn't beat much at Newbury and I don't think he's as good as he was in 2008.
Big Bucks - Banker - I've opposed him with Karabak each way but Big Bucks is different class.
Alaivan - Blowout - Doesn't grab me at all in a very open race. Not a standout in any respect.
Kauto Star - Blowout - Good chance but he's been at the top for a while now. 10 yr old winners are rare.
Denman - Blowout - Another 10 yr old in the Gold Cup. He was simply awful at Newbury.
Roulez Cool - Blowout - Plenty of other chances in this open race.
So there you have it. I'm reckon 4 winners out of 15 horses currently under 4/1. I hope it give you some thought even if you don't take the above advice literally. Come back at the end of next week to see how my predictions worked out
Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Tuesday, 9 March 2010
Field trip to Grange Hill Farm stables - home of Imperial Commander
Early door yesterday I had to the good fortune to drive out into the Cotswolds to visit Grange Hill Farm stables. This is where Nigel Twiston-Davies and his business partner Carl Llewellyn train around 140 horses including top challengers for the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle in the shape of Imperial Commander and Khyber Kim.
It was a perfect crisp morning for watching the horses gallop up the all weather strip in the Spring sunshine. There are oak trees all around and the view across the Cotswolds is superb. In contrast to all this natural environment, a double decker bus is parked at the top of the gallops. It reminds me of the Sunday Sport headline: "World War 2 Bomber Found on Moon.
We see the big two and other contenders put through their paces and talk to Carl about horses. "Horses want to commit suicide," he says. "And it's our job to stop them." So that's the key to winning two Grand Nationals and helping running a top jumps stable then. Simples.
Next a tour of the various yards and boxes and there seem the be loads all over the large site. Carl says the place has expanded massively since he started riding but then we are talking about 48 years ago!
Nigel treats all his straw bedding to reduce the risk of dust and bugs to the horses. It's interesting that not all trainers do this although many use shavings but this is more expensive. A man is employed solely to treat the straw day in and day out.
The outdoor swimming pool means that the horses have a fantastic view over the Cotswolds when they are doing a few lengths or to be more accurate a few circles. It's used to build muscle and to help horses recover from injuries. Must be quite bracing having a dip on som occasions. Over at Jackdaws Castle (Jonjo O'Neills) they have an indoor pool and even a solarium but perhaps racehorses can be too pampered?
Yet more horses and more stables and we stop and say hello to Khyber Kim (pic on left), who has a good chance in the Champion Hurdle.
Carl says that winning races is about stamina and not speed. Horses that win tend to maintain a constant gallop from start to finish. He then says that Imperial Commander is slow. Yikes! This is not good as I really fancy him for the Gold Cup. But Carl reassures me and says Imperial Commander is all about stamina and will stay the Gold Cup trip. Although, through of as a soft ground horse Carl says he'll love the likely good ground and thinks he has a great chance in the Gold Cup. He respects Kauto Star but doesn't fancy Denman at all.
Someone mentions breakfast and it's off to the Hollow Bottom for a great feast. The walls are adorned with racing paraphernalia and lots of Imperial Commander scarfs. I wonder if they are they taking the piss a bit?
After more racing talk and a quick flick through the Racing Post it's time for Carl to head to Stratford races and for me to head back to Cheltenham.
Seeing a top class racing stables first hand with a racing professional was superb experience. The morning was arranged through Course and Distance Racing Tours. To find out more you can visit their website. As well as stable visits they also arrange trips to the Arc and the Velka Pardubicka.
We see the big two and other contenders put through their paces and talk to Carl about horses. "Horses want to commit suicide," he says. "And it's our job to stop them." So that's the key to winning two Grand Nationals and helping running a top jumps stable then. Simples.
Next a tour of the various yards and boxes and there seem the be loads all over the large site. Carl says the place has expanded massively since he started riding but then we are talking about 48 years ago!
Nigel treats all his straw bedding to reduce the risk of dust and bugs to the horses. It's interesting that not all trainers do this although many use shavings but this is more expensive. A man is employed solely to treat the straw day in and day out.
The outdoor swimming pool means that the horses have a fantastic view over the Cotswolds when they are doing a few lengths or to be more accurate a few circles. It's used to build muscle and to help horses recover from injuries. Must be quite bracing having a dip on som occasions. Over at Jackdaws Castle (Jonjo O'Neills) they have an indoor pool and even a solarium but perhaps racehorses can be too pampered?
Carl says that winning races is about stamina and not speed. Horses that win tend to maintain a constant gallop from start to finish. He then says that Imperial Commander is slow. Yikes! This is not good as I really fancy him for the Gold Cup. But Carl reassures me and says Imperial Commander is all about stamina and will stay the Gold Cup trip. Although, through of as a soft ground horse Carl says he'll love the likely good ground and thinks he has a great chance in the Gold Cup. He respects Kauto Star but doesn't fancy Denman at all.
Someone mentions breakfast and it's off to the Hollow Bottom for a great feast. The walls are adorned with racing paraphernalia and lots of Imperial Commander scarfs. I wonder if they are they taking the piss a bit?
After more racing talk and a quick flick through the Racing Post it's time for Carl to head to Stratford races and for me to head back to Cheltenham.
Seeing a top class racing stables first hand with a racing professional was superb experience. The morning was arranged through Course and Distance Racing Tours. To find out more you can visit their website. As well as stable visits they also arrange trips to the Arc and the Velka Pardubicka.
Wednesday, 3 March 2010
Travel information and tips on getting to Cheltenham Racecourse, Prestbury Park
Train travel
Cross Country Trains is the official travel partner of the Cheltenham Festival and is urging racer-goers to enjoy a relaxing journey, avoid queuing for tickets and gain extra time on the course.‘Bu s add on’ tickets are available to buy online at the same time as your train ticket, allowing you to hop straight on to the dedicated Cheltenham bus transfer which runs directly from Cheltenham train station to the racecourse every 10 minutes.
You can buy both tickets online in advance or up to three hours before you travel at www.crosscountrytrains.co.uk and also find out more about the extra dedicated Festival train services running to Cheltenham from Birmingham New Street, Bristol and Derby.You can travel to the Festival in style aboard the totesport special train from London Euston including Reserved Seats, Breakfast, Private Transfers, Club Badge, Private Marquee and Dinner during return journey - all for £289 (Tues or Weds) or £299 Friday (train does not operate Thurs) - Call Totesport hospitality: 0800 666 160.
Road travel
For GPS users the Cheltenham Racecourse postcode is GL50 4SH.
Free minibuses from townThe Beehive and Fiery Angel are offering a free minibus service to and from the racecourse for racegoers who have breakfast with them.
Buses from town
Stagecoach service D runs every 10 minutes during the day and between 10 minutes and every hour on Monday to Saturday evenings. The service runs hourly on Sundays. Service 527 also provides a regular service from Cheltenham Centre to Bishops Cleeve and Gotherington via the Racecourse roundabout. For local Stagecoach information please call 0870 6082608.
Car share
Visit www.carsharegloucestershire.com or call 08700 111199 for information about sharing a car.
Steam train
You can travel to the Racecourse by steam train from Toddington. For more information, please contact Classic Hospitality on 08456 528 888 or visit www.classichospitality.co.uk.
Air travel
Ryanair is the official airline partner and offers flights to and from three local airports for The Festival. For details visit www.ryanair.com. For helicopter flights call RDK Emprise on 01453 821307 or email operations@rdkemprise.co.uk . To arrange to land your own helicopter, call Helicopter & Aviation Services on 01427 718 800, visit www.helipad.co.uk or email info@helipad.co.uk.
Monday, 1 March 2010
A stroll in the Park? - JP Festival Banker Bet for Cheltenham Festival 2010
Enterprise Park in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle is me banker bet for Cheltenham. He's trained by Willie Mullins and is likely to be ridden by Ruby Walsh, both of whom have superb records at the Cheltenham Festival.
There is no telling how good this horse is an he is unbeaten in a bumper and two hurdle races and readily wins his races. He knuckles down to the job and gets it done. The 6 year old, Enterprise Park meets the key trends of the Albert Bartlett in that he is the right age, has won over 2m 5f or further and has won or finished 2nd in a graded hurdle last time out.
He's only run on soft but the same is true of all the other leading contenders. A key point for me is that he's by Supreme Leader whose offspring prefer good going so there is every chance he'll improve when meeting ground better than he's raced on so far. His race is run on the Friday and by then warmer weather and better ground is very possible if not probable. The other main contenders are less likely to be suited by good ground.
In his last race, Enterprise Park won a 2m 6f graded race at Limerick on 28 Dec when Quito De La Roque was 2nd and Hugo De Vindecy was third. The form is strong with both these horses winning since. On form he is arguably a better horse than the same stable's highly touted Quel Esprit. Hugo De Vindecy was beaten into second by a length and three quarters by Quel Esprit in the middle of November but the former was 8 lengths behind Enterprise Park in the Limerick race. Quel Esprit has an entry in this race but he's more likely to run in the Neptune Novices Hurdle on the Wednesday.
The one negative is possibly Enterprise Park's jumping as he can be a bit sloppy but this is likely to improve on better ground and a faster pace both of which he's likely to get at Cheltenham.
I have been monitoring all news about this race for some time and believe that Enterprise Park has a great chance of keeping up the 100% record if JP Festival bankers after Celestial Halo (10/1 in 2008) and Big Bucks (6/1) last year.
Further encouragement has come today with strong support in the market, although the downside of this is that he's no longer available at a double figure price. 9/1 is available with Stan James and William Hill but it's best to take the 8/1 with Ladbrokes as they will give you your money back if he doesn't run in this race.
In summary, Enterprise Park has excellent connections, he's unbeaten, meets the trends and looks as if he'll improve on good going.
Recommended bet: 1 point ew Enterprise Park 8/1 - NR-NB with Ladbrokes
There is no telling how good this horse is an he is unbeaten in a bumper and two hurdle races and readily wins his races. He knuckles down to the job and gets it done. The 6 year old, Enterprise Park meets the key trends of the Albert Bartlett in that he is the right age, has won over 2m 5f or further and has won or finished 2nd in a graded hurdle last time out.
He's only run on soft but the same is true of all the other leading contenders. A key point for me is that he's by Supreme Leader whose offspring prefer good going so there is every chance he'll improve when meeting ground better than he's raced on so far. His race is run on the Friday and by then warmer weather and better ground is very possible if not probable. The other main contenders are less likely to be suited by good ground.
In his last race, Enterprise Park won a 2m 6f graded race at Limerick on 28 Dec when Quito De La Roque was 2nd and Hugo De Vindecy was third. The form is strong with both these horses winning since. On form he is arguably a better horse than the same stable's highly touted Quel Esprit. Hugo De Vindecy was beaten into second by a length and three quarters by Quel Esprit in the middle of November but the former was 8 lengths behind Enterprise Park in the Limerick race. Quel Esprit has an entry in this race but he's more likely to run in the Neptune Novices Hurdle on the Wednesday.
The one negative is possibly Enterprise Park's jumping as he can be a bit sloppy but this is likely to improve on better ground and a faster pace both of which he's likely to get at Cheltenham.
I have been monitoring all news about this race for some time and believe that Enterprise Park has a great chance of keeping up the 100% record if JP Festival bankers after Celestial Halo (10/1 in 2008) and Big Bucks (6/1) last year.
Further encouragement has come today with strong support in the market, although the downside of this is that he's no longer available at a double figure price. 9/1 is available with Stan James and William Hill but it's best to take the 8/1 with Ladbrokes as they will give you your money back if he doesn't run in this race.
In summary, Enterprise Park has excellent connections, he's unbeaten, meets the trends and looks as if he'll improve on good going.
Recommended bet: 1 point ew Enterprise Park 8/1 - NR-NB with Ladbrokes
Sunday, 28 February 2010
JP Festival guide to Cheltenham Festival pubs
Below is a brief guide to a selection of well known and less well known Cheltenham pubs. A good route for a pub crawl is to start in The Fiery Angel, The Swan or St Paul's Tavern after the last race before working your way into the Town Centre and up to Montpellier, before finishing in Tivoli or the Suffolks. You can then do the reverse in the morning and repeat the pattern until Friday!
Racecourse side of town
Fiery Angel on Hewlett Road - in the same ownership as The Beehive reviewed below and a similar place ie a well run modern pub with character and atmosphere with a good selection of beers. Well known for its Open Mic night so expect renditions of Cheltenham (Downtown). On the racecourse side so busy with racegoers before and after racing. They do a good breakfast and a free minibus up to the course. A good first stop after the walk back from Prestbury Park.
[Fiery Angel on Facebook]
The Swan, High Street - great pub and friendly atmosphere which has a strong following from locals. Good beer and great service. They make an effort and look after customers well. Heaters and plenty of room outside for smokers or those seeking fresh air.
[Swan website]
Après and The Brewery - This Scandinavian style large bar opened in time for Festival 09 and this year is part of the Guinness Village at the Brewery where there will be a live Irish Band; The Roving Crows, a ska/jazz/skiffle band; Thrill Collins and Guinness bars and street entertainment. Lots of TV screens here for watching the racing if you can't make it to the course and replays in the evening. Some good drinks deals but stick to Guinness (there will be promos) and avoid the Peroni unless you've backed at least 2 winners! The Brewery restaurants will be serving breakfasts.
[Après website]
St Paul's Tavern, St. Paul's Road - The recently refurbed 'Tav' won't get many mentions elsewhere but is a real find. It's a really great student/local type pub with great food and excellent prices. If you want somewhere friendly and a bit quieter than town centre pubs this could be the place.
[St Paul's Tavern on Facebook]
Town Centre
Montys Bar, St. Georges Road - Upmarket and sophisticated basement cocktail bar (part of The George Hotel) that does great cocktails around a tenner each. Good place to celebrate a win with a quick cocktail but it can become cramped as it gets busy.
[Montys Bar website]
Revolution, Clarence Parade - aka Vodka Revs. Large venue with great cocktails, drinks and food range at reasonable prices. Good atmosphere, good music (cranked up as it gets later) and you might even get a seat. My favourite Cheltenham bar. Likely to be an eclectic mix of young fashionably dressed hotties and suited and booted punters. My bank manager has told me not to go this year to avoid the shoulder massage girls.
[Revolution Cheltenham website]
The Bank House, Clarence Steet - aka new Weatherspoons, aka posh Weatherspoons, aka 'where Que Pasa was'. A new venue for Festival 2010 having opened in October. Only been in once and I read the Racing Post from back to front before I was served. Has gone down well with locals though and Guinness here is about 2/3rds the price of the racecourse. Might be worth a try before the carpets get sticky. A better option than 'Old Weatherspoons'.
Yates Wine Lodge, Crescent Terrace - Yates err...Wine Lodge? Sounds like a chilled place with 6 different varieties of Sauvignon Blanc. It isn't. However, the word is that it will be undergoing a refurb the week before race week to become a flagship Yates Wine Lodge. Will this make any difference? Update (09/03/10) Apparently it has made a difference! £300k spent and looks good by all accounts. Re-opens this Friday.
[Yates website]
Tailors, Cambray Place - great sports pub with nice open area out front with tables and benches. Easy to spot as it's a big building covered in Ivy. Plenty of large TV screens both upstairs and in basement bar which will house a live band that shakes the foundations. Good selection of beers and friendly bar staff. Last year they showed re-runs of the races. Also, not a bad place to start the day as they do a hearty breakfast.
[View Tailors on Facebook]
Montpellier
Montpellier Wine Bar - known globally as 'the Wine Bar' it's not to everyone's taste as viewed as a bit snobby by some. But that's not the case in Festival week. Great atmosphere and fun to drink outside on the pavement and get involved in some racing banter as punters walk by. I've met journos, newspaper photographers, the World Spoof Champion! and a few actors/actresses in here. There are likely to be some mature ladies looking for monied racegoers and new husbands - you have been warned!
[Wine Bar website]
O'Neills, Montpellier Walk - Go here for the best pint of Guinness in town. Great atmosphere, good range of drinks, racing themed, live music and it's loud. You can eat here if you get back from the course quickly. Has to be the place to go on St Patrick's Day (Wednesday) where there should be a great Irish Craic fuelled by singing, dancing and Guinness. Expect some promos from the Guinness girls.
[O'Neills website]
The Queens Hotel - Overrated and extremely crowded. Unless you are staying here or have booked a chair in the bar to sleep in (I kid you not!) I wouldn't bother. Much better to skip the Queens and go to the adjacent Blanc Brasserie cocktail bar which adjoins the hotel. A good place to eat too.
[Queens website]
Tivoli
The Jolly Brewmaster, Painswick Road - local type of pub with excellent selection of real ales and several draft ciders. Plenty of room in the garden for smokers. Quite difficult to find (and therefore not as busy as town centre pubs) as in middle of a residential street. Worth seeking out for the good quality drinks and friendly atmosphere.
[Jolly Brewmaster website]
Lansdown
Lansdown Inn - very much a sports pub with even more TV panels than last Festival so great for watching the racing if you can't make it to the course. Younger punters go here. Quite busy despite not being in the town centre. Good prices. Not a bad place to get a quick dinner after the races alhough it's the other side of town. The restaurant upstairs is usually quieter than town centre restaurants in Festival week.
The Suffolks
The Retreat, Suffolk Parade - Like the Wine Bar lots of suited and booted moneyed punters here eyeing up the horsey hotties (generally ex Cheltenham Ladies College gels) in tweed. Small garden outside for smokers. Smart, trendy, not too busy and everything is red.
[Retreat website]
The Beehive - the atmosphere really buzzes here. A good modern 'local' with a great mixed crowd. Garden outside for smokers. Great choice of real ale, lagers and cider. Good place for chatting to other racegoers and Cheltenham residents. as it's friendly. Recommended.
[Beehive on Facebook]
Racecourse side of town
Fiery Angel on Hewlett Road - in the same ownership as The Beehive reviewed below and a similar place ie a well run modern pub with character and atmosphere with a good selection of beers. Well known for its Open Mic night so expect renditions of Cheltenham (Downtown). On the racecourse side so busy with racegoers before and after racing. They do a good breakfast and a free minibus up to the course. A good first stop after the walk back from Prestbury Park.
[Fiery Angel on Facebook]
The Swan, High Street - great pub and friendly atmosphere which has a strong following from locals. Good beer and great service. They make an effort and look after customers well. Heaters and plenty of room outside for smokers or those seeking fresh air.
[Swan website]
Après and The Brewery - This Scandinavian style large bar opened in time for Festival 09 and this year is part of the Guinness Village at the Brewery where there will be a live Irish Band; The Roving Crows, a ska/jazz/skiffle band; Thrill Collins and Guinness bars and street entertainment. Lots of TV screens here for watching the racing if you can't make it to the course and replays in the evening. Some good drinks deals but stick to Guinness (there will be promos) and avoid the Peroni unless you've backed at least 2 winners! The Brewery restaurants will be serving breakfasts.
[Après website]
St Paul's Tavern, St. Paul's Road - The recently refurbed 'Tav' won't get many mentions elsewhere but is a real find. It's a really great student/local type pub with great food and excellent prices. If you want somewhere friendly and a bit quieter than town centre pubs this could be the place.
[St Paul's Tavern on Facebook]
Town Centre
Montys Bar, St. Georges Road - Upmarket and sophisticated basement cocktail bar (part of The George Hotel) that does great cocktails around a tenner each. Good place to celebrate a win with a quick cocktail but it can become cramped as it gets busy.
[Montys Bar website]
Revolution, Clarence Parade - aka Vodka Revs. Large venue with great cocktails, drinks and food range at reasonable prices. Good atmosphere, good music (cranked up as it gets later) and you might even get a seat. My favourite Cheltenham bar. Likely to be an eclectic mix of young fashionably dressed hotties and suited and booted punters. My bank manager has told me not to go this year to avoid the shoulder massage girls.
[Revolution Cheltenham website]
The Bank House, Clarence Steet - aka new Weatherspoons, aka posh Weatherspoons, aka 'where Que Pasa was'. A new venue for Festival 2010 having opened in October. Only been in once and I read the Racing Post from back to front before I was served. Has gone down well with locals though and Guinness here is about 2/3rds the price of the racecourse. Might be worth a try before the carpets get sticky. A better option than 'Old Weatherspoons'.
Yates Wine Lodge, Crescent Terrace - Yates err...Wine Lodge? Sounds like a chilled place with 6 different varieties of Sauvignon Blanc. It isn't. However, the word is that it will be undergoing a refurb the week before race week to become a flagship Yates Wine Lodge. Will this make any difference? Update (09/03/10) Apparently it has made a difference! £300k spent and looks good by all accounts. Re-opens this Friday.
[Yates website]
Tailors, Cambray Place - great sports pub with nice open area out front with tables and benches. Easy to spot as it's a big building covered in Ivy. Plenty of large TV screens both upstairs and in basement bar which will house a live band that shakes the foundations. Good selection of beers and friendly bar staff. Last year they showed re-runs of the races. Also, not a bad place to start the day as they do a hearty breakfast.
[View Tailors on Facebook]
Montpellier
Montpellier Wine Bar - known globally as 'the Wine Bar' it's not to everyone's taste as viewed as a bit snobby by some. But that's not the case in Festival week. Great atmosphere and fun to drink outside on the pavement and get involved in some racing banter as punters walk by. I've met journos, newspaper photographers, the World Spoof Champion! and a few actors/actresses in here. There are likely to be some mature ladies looking for monied racegoers and new husbands - you have been warned!
[Wine Bar website]
O'Neills, Montpellier Walk - Go here for the best pint of Guinness in town. Great atmosphere, good range of drinks, racing themed, live music and it's loud. You can eat here if you get back from the course quickly. Has to be the place to go on St Patrick's Day (Wednesday) where there should be a great Irish Craic fuelled by singing, dancing and Guinness. Expect some promos from the Guinness girls.
[O'Neills website]
The Queens Hotel - Overrated and extremely crowded. Unless you are staying here or have booked a chair in the bar to sleep in (I kid you not!) I wouldn't bother. Much better to skip the Queens and go to the adjacent Blanc Brasserie cocktail bar which adjoins the hotel. A good place to eat too.
[Queens website]
Tivoli
The Jolly Brewmaster, Painswick Road - local type of pub with excellent selection of real ales and several draft ciders. Plenty of room in the garden for smokers. Quite difficult to find (and therefore not as busy as town centre pubs) as in middle of a residential street. Worth seeking out for the good quality drinks and friendly atmosphere.
[Jolly Brewmaster website]
Lansdown
Lansdown Inn - very much a sports pub with even more TV panels than last Festival so great for watching the racing if you can't make it to the course. Younger punters go here. Quite busy despite not being in the town centre. Good prices. Not a bad place to get a quick dinner after the races alhough it's the other side of town. The restaurant upstairs is usually quieter than town centre restaurants in Festival week.
The Suffolks
The Retreat, Suffolk Parade - Like the Wine Bar lots of suited and booted moneyed punters here eyeing up the horsey hotties (generally ex Cheltenham Ladies College gels) in tweed. Small garden outside for smokers. Smart, trendy, not too busy and everything is red.
[Retreat website]
The Beehive - the atmosphere really buzzes here. A good modern 'local' with a great mixed crowd. Garden outside for smokers. Great choice of real ale, lagers and cider. Good place for chatting to other racegoers and Cheltenham residents. as it's friendly. Recommended.
[Beehive on Facebook]
Monday, 22 February 2010
Why Imperial Commander can win the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Here is a follow up piece to my Christmas Day (how sad is that) article selecting Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup.
Seemingly a two horse race between Kauto Star and Denman, there are not many other genuine contenders for the Gold Cup and the race lacks strength in depth.
Cooldine and Imperial Commander are the only other contenders that have shown anywhere near the form and ability to win the Blue Riband of jump racing.
The latter at 14/1 with William Hill is great value to take charge of the Gold Cup by upsetting the big two and putting Cooldine to the sword.
In Imperial Commander, trainer Nigel Twiston Davies has an improving classy chaser who simply loves Cheltenham. He took the Ryanair Chase at the Festival last year and the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2008. Five of his six victories have come at Prestbury Park, where he boasts a 55% strike rate (better than Kauto Star’s 50% record).
The favourite, Kauto Star is going to be tough to beat but in the Betfair Chase at Haydock Imperial Commander came within a whisker of beating Kauto Star. Yet, Kauto Star is odds one and Imperial Commander is 12/1. So the bookies are saying that Kauto Star has more than 12 times the chance of winning the big race? I don’t think so. The Haydock race was an improved performance from nine year old Imperial Commander and at this optimum age for a chaser he is likely to improve again.
The Haydock race proved that Imperial Commander can stay a 3 mile trip and he didn’t look as if he was stopping. The 3m 2f of the Gold Cup should not be a problem. At Haydock, he also demonstrated that he doesn’t need to make the pace and this versatility will be important come Friday 19 March.
Kauto Star and Denman are now ten years old. The last ten year old winner was Cool Dawn in 1998 and there have only been two 10 year old winners in the past 20 years. Are either of them improving at 10 years old? No. Is Imperial Commander. Yes.
Denman’s performance in the Hennessy Gold Cup was simply awesome but at Newbury in the Aon Chase he fell and seemed to lack his usual zip. Hardly an ideal prep for Cheltenham.
The same could be said of Imperial Commander who was thrashed by Kauto Star in the King George at Christmas. However, his record suggests he just doesn’t operate on right handed tracks. This was his last run so he will be fresh and ready to run for this life at Cheltenham.
Cooldine ran a good trial in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown when coming second to Joncol. If continuing to progress he would have a chance but he is a full stone behind Imperial Commander on Official Ratings.
To sum up, Imperial Commander has all the attributes needed to take charge in the Gold Cup and is very much a value bet.
Thursday, 18 February 2010
Take a punt on Planet in the Ryanair Chase
Following the latest forfeit stage on Wednesday and a key trial at Ascot on Saturday, now is a good time to have a close look at the Ryanair Chase. It seems like a well established fixture at the Festival, but in fact there have only been five runnings since it was introduced when the Festival became a four day event in 2005. In fact, in the first year it was sponsored by the Daily Telegraph with Ryanair taking it over in 2006. For the past 2 seasons it's been a Grade 1 event and deserves that status. In it's short history it's been only been won by the well established trainers, Nicholls (twice), Henderson, Pipe and Twiston-Davies whose Imperial Commander won last year.
The general view seems to be that this year's renewal is really competitive but for me there are question marks about most of the main protagonists. Let's look the major contenders in more detail. I put Poquelin on the short list for this race after he ran a good 2nd in the Paddy Power in November and he's now the favourite. He must have a good chance especially on the likely better going but the doubt for me is that he's not performed outside of handicap company and this is a Grade 1 Chase. He is capable of improvement though and a good performance would be no surprise. He is very short in the betting given his form with Tranquil Sea.
Next in the betting is Barbers Shop who firmed in the betting today. But he hasn't won a race since about 1963 (well, a 5 runner race in December 2008) so I can't have him at around 6/1. Having said that, Nicky Henderson did win this race with a similar type in Fondmort.
Then there's Tranquil Sea who hacked up in the Paddy Power looking something special. His only run since was when coming second to Golden Silver over 2m 1f which is probably too short for him. Taking the lowest and highest prices it is hard to fathom why he is more than double the price of Poquelin at 7/1, who he beat in the Paddy Power when receiving only 2lbs. An Irish horse has yet to win this race but it's early days in its history and Tranquil Sea was the first Irish horse for 29 years to win the Paddy Power. So reasons to oppose him but the Irish stat not one of them. The big problem is lack of any news from the Edward O'Grady yard regarding his wellbeing or target. He seems to have gone completely off the radar.
Others to consider are Schindlers Hunt but he's another like Barbers Shop who rarely wins and he not improving at age 10. Voy Por Ustedes was a hot favourite for the race last year and he also isn't getting any younger and has done little this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he bounced back to grab a place but I can't see him winning.
That leaves Planet Of Sound who is my selection. He has strong form in two races he's contested this season. He won the Haldon Gold Cup with Twist Magic (giving 15lbs) back in third. Then at Ascot in a Grade 2 he caught Albertas Run on a going day but was a good 2nd (was giving away 6lbs) after making a mistake at the ninth. Voy Por Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt were behind in 3rd and 4th. So he has form mixed up with some really good horses, is a winner of a Graded Chase and he's open to improvement. He has been trained specifically for this race and has a top trainer in Philip Hobbs. Finally, he has Festival form with a third in the Arkle last year.
Planet Of Sound is a value each way bet at a double figure price. Let's make the bookmakers for not cutting his odds after Joncol's withdrawal in mid-week by hoovering up the 10/1 with Corals, Hills or Bet365. He is favourite to win the Betfair Chase on Ascot and a win there will see his price drop to singles figures. Let's hope he flys in on Saturday en route to winning the Ryanair.
Recommended bet: 1 point ew Planet Of Sound 10/1 - generally
Update - 19 Feb 2010: Following my comments above yesterday on the lack of news regarding Tranquil Sea, it was announced today that he will run at Naas on Sunday. Edward O'Grady stated, "He's in good form and if all goes well he'll head for the Ryanair Chase."
The general view seems to be that this year's renewal is really competitive but for me there are question marks about most of the main protagonists. Let's look the major contenders in more detail. I put Poquelin on the short list for this race after he ran a good 2nd in the Paddy Power in November and he's now the favourite. He must have a good chance especially on the likely better going but the doubt for me is that he's not performed outside of handicap company and this is a Grade 1 Chase. He is capable of improvement though and a good performance would be no surprise. He is very short in the betting given his form with Tranquil Sea.
Next in the betting is Barbers Shop who firmed in the betting today. But he hasn't won a race since about 1963 (well, a 5 runner race in December 2008) so I can't have him at around 6/1. Having said that, Nicky Henderson did win this race with a similar type in Fondmort.
Then there's Tranquil Sea who hacked up in the Paddy Power looking something special. His only run since was when coming second to Golden Silver over 2m 1f which is probably too short for him. Taking the lowest and highest prices it is hard to fathom why he is more than double the price of Poquelin at 7/1, who he beat in the Paddy Power when receiving only 2lbs. An Irish horse has yet to win this race but it's early days in its history and Tranquil Sea was the first Irish horse for 29 years to win the Paddy Power. So reasons to oppose him but the Irish stat not one of them. The big problem is lack of any news from the Edward O'Grady yard regarding his wellbeing or target. He seems to have gone completely off the radar.
Others to consider are Schindlers Hunt but he's another like Barbers Shop who rarely wins and he not improving at age 10. Voy Por Ustedes was a hot favourite for the race last year and he also isn't getting any younger and has done little this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he bounced back to grab a place but I can't see him winning.
That leaves Planet Of Sound who is my selection. He has strong form in two races he's contested this season. He won the Haldon Gold Cup with Twist Magic (giving 15lbs) back in third. Then at Ascot in a Grade 2 he caught Albertas Run on a going day but was a good 2nd (was giving away 6lbs) after making a mistake at the ninth. Voy Por Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt were behind in 3rd and 4th. So he has form mixed up with some really good horses, is a winner of a Graded Chase and he's open to improvement. He has been trained specifically for this race and has a top trainer in Philip Hobbs. Finally, he has Festival form with a third in the Arkle last year.
Planet Of Sound is a value each way bet at a double figure price. Let's make the bookmakers for not cutting his odds after Joncol's withdrawal in mid-week by hoovering up the 10/1 with Corals, Hills or Bet365. He is favourite to win the Betfair Chase on Ascot and a win there will see his price drop to singles figures. Let's hope he flys in on Saturday en route to winning the Ryanair.
Recommended bet: 1 point ew Planet Of Sound 10/1 - generally
Update - 19 Feb 2010: Following my comments above yesterday on the lack of news regarding Tranquil Sea, it was announced today that he will run at Naas on Sunday. Edward O'Grady stated, "He's in good form and if all goes well he'll head for the Ryanair Chase."
Tuesday, 16 February 2010
Saturday, 13 February 2010
Denmania awaits!
Off to Newbury today for some superb jump racing action, Cheltenham Festival 2010 clues and Denmania! I'll be reporting live via @jpfestival on Twitter and in the Weekly Update which will be sent out on Monday.
If you're not on Twitter you can still follow the updates on the right hand side of the site. If you're not yet subscribed to the Weekly Update please sign up, again on the right.
Only 31 days to go until the Cheltenham roar!
If you're not on Twitter you can still follow the updates on the right hand side of the site. If you're not yet subscribed to the Weekly Update please sign up, again on the right.
Only 31 days to go until the Cheltenham roar!
Wednesday, 10 February 2010
Your Introduction to the Cheltenham Festival 2010
You can read an article I wrote for Eclipse by following this link: Your Introduction to the Cheltenham Festival 2010 from Eclipse. It's aimed at people new to racing and I hope it conveys the magic of the four days in March.
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